Tuesday Coronavirus Update

Total cases of coronavirus in Virginia now number 134,571 with 10,293 hospitalizations and 2,743 deaths.

Growth in cases has plateaued overall. However, 2 health
districts are currently in a surge trajectory and an additional 10
are showing slow growth.
Students returning to college and university campuses appear to
be driving surges in some areas.
The statewide reproduction rate is above 1.0 for a second week.
The Northwest region saw a significant rise, to 1.648.

The UVA team continues to improve the model weekly. The UVA model now uses an “adaptive fitting” methodology, where
the model precisely traces past and current trends and uses that information to predict future cases. These new projections
are based on recent trends the model learns through its precise fitting of each individual county’s cases. This model replaces
the 8 scenarios reported in prior weeks. Each health district now has its own unique scenario.
The new model also includes two “what-if” scenarios to predict what we might see if cases increase in response to seasonal
effects in the Fall, such as schools re-opening and changing weather patterns. It is still too early to know the impact that
these seasonal effects will have. For now, the model assumes a 10-20% increase in transmissibility beginning on Labor Day.
The model will be updated regularly to incorporate new information.